Fantasy Football '24: Kick-off!

Welcome to another season of NFL and fantasy football! Big announcement: All of my fantasy content this season will be published here at Big Blue View on the SBNation family of websites. I'm very excited to be joining the team here, and in addition to fantasy content, I'll also be helping out with coverage of the Giants. For those who have read my work over the past three seasons on the Pigskin Papers website, welcome back. For those who are new to my columns, welcome aboard. I hope you've all had a great offseason so far.

July is here, and that means it's time to start our fantasy coverage for 2024. Fantasy football exploded in the 2000s and now comes in different flavors like Dynasty and Best Ball, but for me, the OG version of the game –Season-long rewrite– is the name of the game, and that will continue to be the focus of my content, so if you're in a bread-and-butter home league with your buddies, or a work or family league, I'm your man. Your fantasy drafts will be here sooner than you think, and it's not too early to start preparing, or at least thinking about your strategy.

I'll get into some general considerations in a moment, but before we begin, a quick note on my content for the upcoming season. I will again have plenty of preseason strategy articles to help you with your draft, and weekly Disclaimer (Monday) and Fantasy Preview (Thursday) In-season columns to help you manage your lineups and rosters. And you can find it all right here on Big Blue View.

OK, that's it for the prelims. On to the main event. I'm going to start the preseason discussion with three random thoughts on the 2024 fantasy draft. Ready? OK, here we go!

. 1 in TE rating last season before suffering a season-ending injury) may not be ready to start the season. Regardless. We have other options for you. Rookie tight ends rarely put up TE1 numbers, but Lions sensation Sam LaPorta certainly did, while fellow rookie Dalton Kincaid and Luke Musgrave both showed promise and should make nice strides in Year 2. Musgrave is rated more as a TE2 with potential for 2024, but Kincaid is on pretty much every breakout list you can find. And that's not all. Trey McBride was a monster down the stretch in his second season, which coincided with Kyler Murray's return, Kyle Pitts (remember him?) is free of Arthur Smith and finally has a real quarterback, Jake Ferguson has emerged as the No. 2 option in a pass-happy offense, Mark Andrews is healthy, Evan Engram has become Trevor Lawrence's favorite target, Kittle can still produce, David Njoku has hit the ground running down the stretch (albeit with Joe Flacco at quarterback), and Dallas Goedert is a solid cog in a great offense.

The tight end positions are now around twelve players deep and have good “starter” options. And there's interesting depth at the position behind them too with guys like Tyler Conklin, Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, Musgrave and others. But wait, there's more! Raiders rookie Brock Bowers is one of the best pass-catching tight end prospects of the last two decades. So what does that mean for draft strategy? Well, if you want LaPorta, Kelce, McBride, Andrews or Kincaid, you'll have to strike pretty early, but if you miss out on those guys, there are still plenty of solid options a few rounds later. That hasn't been the case in recent seasons.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

Random thought #2: Be a little careful with the RB carousel

Look at your programs, folks. Saquon Barkley is an Eagle? Derrick Henry a Raven? Josh Jacobs a Packer? Aaron Jones a Viking? Joe Mixon a Texan? Tony Pollard a Titan? There are more, but you get my point. Many starting running backs have found new locations this offseason, further evidence of how the position and its relative value have evolved (or rather regressed) in the salary cap era. A whopping 13 of 32 teams will have a new “RB1” this season. What does this mean for fantasy?

Each of the six RBs listed above was worth at least a late first-round/early second-round pick at some point in fantasy. Each of them has a good to great chance with their new team. Some of them – Barkley, Henry and Jacobs in particular – are going from a low-scoring offense to one of the best units in the NFL. Sounds great, right? Not so fast. I plan to tread carefully on almost all of them. All are between 26 and 30 years old, which is risky territory for backs. Each of them is likely already having their best season, and each former team let their former RB1 go for good reason. Age factor aside, they all come from a specific system, personnel situation and role that will change in one way or another. In some cases, that's a positive, but I think we need to test the tires carefully before clicking on most of them at current average draft position (ADP).

In general, I don't consider stats from the last two to three seasons to be all that meaningful. Let's use Barkley as an example. Yes, he's a rare talent and is moving to a productive offense. But he's coming to a team with a quarterback who has 28 rushing TDs over the last two seasons. That's not a misprint, and short-yardage TDs will play a big role in Barkley's performance. Additionally, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni has shown a penchant for using multiple RBs despite never having a player like Barkley. Right now, Barkley's ADP is early Round 2, and I'm not likely to jump on that. I'll draft any of the above players if the price is right, but if it's a tie, I'll lean towards slightly safer situations with more experience on the same team.

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Random Thought #3: Wait for QB! But you'll be fine if you don't.

I've always been a “wait for the QB” guy, but last season, after a year (2022) where the top four quarterbacks outperformed the rest of the position by a decent margin, I started to rethink that. The emergence of some elite dual-threat QBs (Allen, Hurts and Jackson) plus Patrick Mahomes gives us a couple of fantasy monsters at the top of the position, with a few other exciting young players who might be ready to join them at the top. But as productive as the “Big 4” are for fantasy, the position is strong and deep overall, which begs the question: Is it worth grabbing one of them with a pick somewhere in the 20-40 overall pick range in a one-QB league? I still prefer to wait.

Quick digression: If you're in a 10 or 12 team league, you should play superflex (where you can start two QBs). I'll talk more about that in a later article. However, if your league only allows you to start one QB, the decision of when to strike isn't as simple. On one hand, quarterbacks are the biggest stars in the game AND the best point scorers in fantasy. Last season, 12 of the top 15-point scorers in half PPR were QBs. On the other hand, you need to stock up on quality starters at running back, wide receiver, and tight end in the first half of your draft, and compared to each of those positions, the QB position is much deeper with quality options, and if you only need one starting quarterback, grabbing one after filling other needs that require less quality is a logical approach. Does it make sense to spend a late second-round or early third-round pick on one of the Big 4 when you can get someone like Purdy, Tua, or Goff six or seven rounds later (or, if you don't want to go back that far, someone like Kyler, Dak, or Love three rounds later)?

The quarterback selection is probably as strong as it's ever been. Right now, the quarterbacks ranked 11th through 18th in the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Daniels, Goff, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Lawrence and Kirk Cousins. The next two are the game's veterans – Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. Each of these 10 players has a real chance to finish as a top-12 QB (a QB1). How did we get so much quality depth? The answer is a massive infusion of young quarterback talent over the last seven years, while on the other hand, far fewer top fantasy QBs are aging. Last year, three quarterbacks who were in their first year in the starting lineup (Love, Stroud and Richardson) all made good cases to be a top-10 option this season and are ranked accordingly. Other QBs like Tagovailoa, Goff and Purdy have cemented a fantasy value “just outside the top 10.” Big stars Burrow, Murray, Herbert and Lawrence are returning from injury-plagued seasons and have big potential. That's economics 101: In single-quarterback leagues, supply far exceeds demand, meaning buyers can and should get a great bargain if they want. Thanks, Adam Smith.

Bottom line, in leagues with only one quarterback, I'll probably wait and get one in the 11-15 range. But I like many of the quarterbacks in the top 10 and will seriously consider them if they slip a bit below their ADP. Allen is particularly interesting. He's been the best or second-best scorer in fantasy games four years in a row and is as durable as they come. I think the best strategy at quarterbacks is to be flexible and pounce on the guys you like the most if they have the value since there's so much supply out there. I also highly recommend getting two of the guys in the top 20 or so. Quarterback injuries have been bad the last few years and over 60 quarterbacks have started the last two seasons. If my QB1 gets injured, I'd rather have a viable option on the bench than struggle on the waiver list.

That's it for now. Check back soon for more preseason content.

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Please welcome David Hartman to the BBV staff. We hope you enjoy the consistent Fantasy Football coverage].