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How will Texas fare in the SEC? Analysis of the simulated 2024 results

Three years after accepting the invitation, the University of Texas became an official member of the SEC on July 1, 2024, marking a fundamental change in the college sports landscape.

Texas's entry into the conference comes a year earlier than originally agreed, as the Longhorns and the University of Oklahoma reached a $100 million agreement with the Big 12 last year to exit early.

Texas has long been a heavyweight in collegiate swimming: The men's team finished either 1st or 2nd at the NCAA Championships for eight consecutive seasons from 2014-2022, while the women have earned three consecutive second-place finishes at the national championships after finishing 3rd in 2021.

The Longhorns clearly dominated the competition at the Big 12 Championships, but now in the SEC, conference titles are not a foregone conclusion.

At least for the men, comparing the Texas team of last season to the team we will see in 2024-25 is like comparing apples to oranges. They have a new front man, head coach and swimming director Robert Bowmanand will make significant additions, including transfers Hubert Kos, Rex Maurer And Andrew ShackellFirst-year students Lucas And Kyle Peckand the return of David Johnstonwho was not eligible to play in the 2023–24 season.

The women’s team led by Carol Capitaniwill lose Kelly Pash However, they retain a good portion of their core and have the prospect of being among the top three teams at the NCAAs again.

But how will they fare at the SEC Championships?

Below are the results of the 2024 SEC Championships, taking into account the times of Texas from the Big 12.

Simulation courtesy of Kevin Hallmann. Note that the simulator only includes the results of the top nine teams, so the results are not exact. You can scroll down in the embedded PDF to see each event.

RESULTS MEN

Swimming simulator

Expected team rankings

  1. Florida, 754.5
  2. Auburn, 450.5
  3. Georgia, 434.0
  4. Tennessee, 414.0
  5. Texas, 352.0
  6. Texas A&M, 337.5
  7. Alabama, 205.5
  8. LSU-187
  9. South Carolina, 133

Results Women

Swimming simulator2

Expected team rankings

  1. Florida, 661.5
  2. Texas, 580
  3. Tennessee, 508.5
  4. Texas A&M, 384.5
  5. Georgia, 307
  6. Auburn, 268
  7. Alabama, 251
  8. South Carolina, 211.5
  9. LSU-127

One major caveat that comes with any roster changes next season is the fact that Texas is essentially doing no Big 12 preparation at all—at least not their top swimmers who are NCAA-qualified—because they can easily win the conference title.

This results in the simulated results accounting for some relatively slow times by the Longhorns, which is one reason why the men would have finished only 5th at the 2024 SECs, more than 400 points behind Florida, and the women would have finished a distant second behind the Gators.

Given the new additions and the fact that Bowman will surely get them, at least the men's team, ready to swim fast come conference championships—at ASU, Bowman's swimmers have been fast all season—the battle at the SECs promises to be exciting.

But after years of the conference title being a secondary consideration and merely a stepping stone to the NCAA championships, the Longhorns now have a lot of work to do if they want to become SEC champions, with Florida standing in their way.