Leaked Democratic poll shows Biden heading for disaster in swing states, Democratic strongholds now in play

President Joe Biden's terrible, terrible, terrible week since the presidential debate just keeps getting worse.

As if the open panic among Democratic politicians and pundits over Biden's disastrous performance on Thursday wasn't enough, poll results leaked to digital news portal Puck on Tuesday show that he has done more than just lose ground in swing states.

According to a memo from a polling institute influential in Democratic circles, even states that are considered Democratic strongholds are now in play.

The memo, reported by veteran political journalist and former CNN correspondent Peter Hamby, came from the progressive polling group OpenLabs.

The nonprofit OpenLabs “conducts polling and messaging testing for a number of Democratic groups, including the 501(c)4 nonprofit associated with Future Forward, the preferred super PAC for Biden’s re-election campaign,” Hamby wrote.

But the news of the poll results in the 72 hours following the debate in Atlanta may not have been any consolation for Biden's team.

Hamby wrote that 40 percent of voters who supported him in 2020 now think he should drop out of the race. According to an OpenLabs poll in May, that figure was only 25 percent, Hamby said.

Hamby expressed reservations about the results, but also noted that OpenLabs carries weight with Democratic strategists.

“Of course, this is just a single poll conducted during the initial aftershocks of the debate. It will take several weeks to determine whether Biden's slide in the polls is a trend and not a blip,” he wrote. “But given their reputation within the party and their ties to Future Forward, OpenLabs is a company that will be taken seriously by Democratic campaign teams.”

The poll found that Biden's support in the swing states that will decide the November election suffered greatly as a result of the debate.

“In the crucial state of Pennsylvania, Biden is now 7 points behind, compared to 5 points before the debate,” Hamby wrote. “He has also fallen behind in Michigan, where he is now 7 points behind Trump. OpenLabs also found that he is now losing about 10 points in Georgia and Arizona and almost 9 points in Nevada.”

That alone points to disaster for the Democrats, but the data presented by Hamby on states that could have been considered safe in the blue column should make even Jill Biden sit up and take notice.

“Biden is now ahead by only a fraction of a point in Virginia, Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico – and he is now ahead by only about 2 points in Colorado,” Hamby wrote.

“Biden is now ahead by a fraction of a point in Virginia, Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico” – in fact, it looks like Biden is down by a fraction of a point in NM and VA, according to the OpenLabs poll. @PeterHamby pic.twitter.com/jjhDY2cHQz

— Jared Walczak (@JaredWalczak) July 2, 2024

All of this is likely to only make more noise among some Democrats who will want to find a way to get Biden to withdraw from the race and push the party to find a new candidate to fight the likely Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.

Immediately after Thursday's debate, even the reliably left-leaning moderators of CNN and MSNBC were unsettled by Biden's performance.

In the days that followed, even the most left-leaning mainstream media were forced to report on the Democrats' unrest over the president in November.

And on Tuesday, Texas Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first Democrat in Congress to say Biden should follow President Lyndon Johnson's example in 1968 and drop out of the race.

Texas is, of course, clearly red and Doggett's words would probably not change the outcome in the Lone Star State.

But the situation is different in Virginia, Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico. For the Democrats, a loss in these states would be like a repeat of the nightmare of Ronald Reagan's 49-state landslide victory in 1984. (For most American voters, that was clearly not a nightmare.)

If these states are as contested as the leaked memo suggests, that does not bode well for Biden's team and the Democrats in general.